NIGERIA'S GDP MAY GROW BELOW 2% THIS YEAR

Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in real terms will grow by less than 2% this year 2018, based on our projections from 3rd figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics this week.

According to the NBS, the nation's real GDP grew by 1.81% to N18.08 trillion in the Q3 year on year.

This was 0.64% points higher than the 1.17% year on year growth clocked in Q3 2017 and also, 0.31% points above 1.50% recorded in Q2 this year.

When it is recalled that Q1 2018 growth was 1.05%, it is very much in doubt if overall growth in 2018 year will be far outside the range of 1.50%; unless growth rate in the last quarter turns out to be a miraculous one, upwards or downwards.

The good news is that, even that level it will still represent continuous growth out 2016's recession when real GDP growth was minus 1.58%.

It was from here real growth rate of 0.82% was recorded in 2017 although Q1 of that year was also negative.

The bad news is that the projected 2018 growth rate will be a shadow of the years between 2011 and 2014 and also, still short of the 2.79% growth clocked in 2015 before the 2016 recession.

Peak growth since 2011 was 6.22% recorded in 2014 followed by 5.49% in 2013 and 5.31% in 2011 before 4.21% in 2012.

President Buhari took over the reigns of government in May 2015, more than six months to the end of the year but 2015 turned out to be the start of fast lane to recession.

According to the NBS, the non-oil sector contributed less (90.62%) to real GDP in Q3 compared to 91.45% in Q2 this year. But the sector's contribution was still comparable to Q3 2017 contribution of 90.16%.

That may be understandable because oil production dropped in Q2 to 1.84m bpd after staying around 2m since Q3 2017.


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