NIGERIA'S BUDGET 2019 HIGHLIGHTS

EXPENDITURE: 
Total Expenditure:  N8.83 Trillion
Grants etc.               N209.92 billion
Non Debt Recurrent N4.04 Trillion
Debt servicing          N2.14 Trillion
Capital Expenditure N2.031 Trillion

REVENUE

Total Revenue.          N6.97 Trillion
Oil Revenue.              N3.73 Trillion
(Including NLNG dividend)
Non oil Revenue.       N1.39 Trillion

BASE ASSUMPTIONS:

Crude oil price. $60. Per barrel.
Production per day:  2.3 barrels
Exchange rate.  N305 to $1
Inflation rate.     9.98%
Real GDP growth:  3.01%

COMMENTS:

The 2019 revenue and expenditure estimates represent 3% decline on 2018 estimates thus hinting at scale of sights and projections of the Buhari Adminststion 

Even then some of the basis assumptions and targets may be hard to achieve. 
Crude oil production. Assumption in 2018 was also 2.3m barrels per day and quarterly top so far remains 2m barrels.

Besides, in spite of Donald Trump's determination to bring Iran to her knees and still hanging Kashoggi murder case, it is not likely world crude oil price will find it easy to settle at $60 per barrel or average that through the year.

By the 3rd quarter of 2018, real GDP growth was 1.81% and because it is the highest so far this year, real growth come year end may be around 1.5% or less for the year.

Thus it may take a miracle of sorts for real GDP growth to double through 2019 quarters to deliver at least target 3.01% .

With CBN to bank interest rate still at 14% thus putting real interest at the open market at much higher double digit, it is hard to see how far the nation's economic can be driven  without big business new investments and  expansion.

The economy will continue to be driven more by intervention programmes that try to get around high interest rate burden on all sectors of the economy. Yet, under normal circumstances, such intervention work best as short term programmes not long haul ones because of the hole they normally bore in government finances.

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