NIGERIAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY SLOWING DOWN?

According to figures for the first quarter of this year released today May 21, 2018 by the National Bureau of Statistics ( NBS), Nigeria's sluggish recovery from 2016 depression seems to be slowing down.

According to the figures, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Nigeria in the first quarter of this year grew by 1.95%  year on year to N16.106tr.

Much as this remains heartwarming because it is a growth, not a decline, it however represents a slow down of sorts from the year on year GDP growth of 2.11% recorded in the 4th quarter of 2017.

Indeed, Nigeria had come out of recession gradually as quarterly GDP growth improved. It was 0.72% in quarter 2, then 1.17% quarter 3 before the 2.11% it has now eased from.

This is inspite of relatively great improvement in crude oil production and price within the first quarter of this year which led to higher % contribution by the sector to real GDP.

By the first quarter of this year, Nigeria's crude oil production averaged 2m barrels per day, says the NBS  compared to 1.95m, 1.98m and 1.87m barrels per day in 4th, 3rd and 2nd quarters of 2017.

Indeed, at that level, crude oil production actually crossed the 2m mark for the first time since first quarter of 2016 hit 2.05m barrels per day.

In the end, the oil sector contribution to GDP rose to 9.61% in first quarter of this year compared to 8.53% in the first quarter of 2017 and 7.35% in 4th quarter of the same 2017.

Meaning that the drag on GDP within the period came from non oil sector which, says the NBS, recorded only 0.04% year on year within the period. This though compares favourably with decline of 0.70% recorded in non oil sector in quarter 4 of 2017.

With dip in first quarter growth rate, it is hard to predict the likely final growth for year 2018. One thing is sure though, it will be higher that 0.83% recorded in 2017 full year and still an improvement on 2016's historic 1.58% drop.

But certainly, 2018 growth will be a far cry from 2014's 6.22% which remains the highest for Nigerian GDP since 2011 and perhaps, there will be an earned sigh of relief if it comes close to 2.79% recorded in 2015 before the 2016 recession.


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