NIGERIA: WHO BENEFITS THE MOST AND WHY PETROL SUBSIDY CONTINUES.

The figures for petroleum products consumption and importation in 2017 seem to give a hint of who benefited the most from Nigerian premium motor spirit (PMS) subsidy in 2017 and why it is still being subsidised while Kerosene is not.

The figures for imported petroleum products and their consumption in 2017 were released by the National Bureau of Statistics this week.

Of the 36 States of the federation plus Abuja, the federal capital territory; only 7 received higher % share of the imported subsidisable 17.31bn litres of petrol imported in 2017 than they got from 340.33m litres of kerosene imported.

And what is more: territories close to federal seat of power (Abuja,Niger, Kogi) or with high population (Kano) fall more into group of those with higher % share of imported petrol and so, more likely to continue to defend subsidy.

For example, Kano got 7.44% of imported petrol in 2017 but received only 2.75% of the kerosene. The same with Abuja with 5.09% of imported fuel in 2017 as against 1.96% of imported kerosene.

On the other end of the spectrum, 9 states got higher % share of imported kerosene than they had for fuel.

Rivers state, got 16.05% of imported kerosene according to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics in 2017 compared to 3.87% of imported petrol.

Delta state got 3.79% of imported petrol and 7.95% of imported kerosene and Kaduna state got 3.94% of imported petrol and 7.77% of imported kerosene.

Lagos state got the highest % shares for both products in 2017 apparently because of its population, and economic status. These were in almost equal double digits as it got 16.53% and 16.98% of imported petrol and kerosene, respectively.

This seems to suggest that kerosene subsidy was so easy to remove because % take of territories close to the centre; with high population or economic power depend more on petrol than they do for kerosene. 

Apart from Delta and Rivers states, the territories with higher % share of kerosene in 2017 were Abia (2.79% as against 2.3% for Petrol); Bayelsa (1.5% against 0.39%); Ebonyi (0.58% compared to 0.42% for imported fuel) Kaduna (7.77% against 3.94%) and Nasarawa (2.6% as against 0.68%).

Others were Cross River with 1.95% of kerosene compared to 1.88% of imported petrol and Ogun state (6% of kerosene against 5.37% of petrol).

The figures also indicate quite clearly which states benefited more from petroleum subsidy in 2017. These are Lagos state (16.53% share); Kano (7.44%) Kogi (6.79%); Niger (6.07%) and Oyo with 4.36% of the imported and subsidised petrol.

Those territories that benefited the least were Yobe which received 0.16% of the imported petrol; Jigawa with 0.19%; Sokoto (0.35%); Bauchi (0.39%),Ebonyi (0.42%); Ekiti (0.46%); Bayelsa (0.49%); and Katsina and Nasarawa states with 0.68% take each in 2017.

Of course, because of their distance from landing port, it could be conceded though that most of the states that benefited the least would end up with higher prices per litre if petrol is deregulated.

But that will not be unique: Kano and Abuja for example fall into the same category of likely higher price per litre territories once subsidy is removed.

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