NIGERIAN ECONOMY NOW GROWING BY SINGLE DIGIT.

At last after dropping every quarter in recession in 2016 and early 2017, Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.4% in real terms in the 3rd quota of this year, says the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its latest report released today, November 20, 2017.

According to the NBS, in real terms, the nation's GDP came to N18.03 trillion in the quarter, up 1.4% on quarter 3 in 2016  when a 2.34% drop was recorded. The figure also represents 8.97% growth on 2nd quarter which had a revised growth of 0.72%.

This not only means that for the second quarter, the Nigerian economy continued to grow out of recession but more importantly, the year on year growth almost doubled the revised 0.72% climb out of recession in Quarter 2.

But, thanks of course, to higher crude oil and gas production; higher international crude oil prices and continued relative peace in the Niger Delta.

In the quarter, Nigeria's average crude oil and gas production hit 2.03m barrels per day compared to 1.87m barrels  in the previous quarter and 1.69m barrels in the first quarter. The Q3 figure was the 4th highest since 2015 and indeed, represents crossing of the 2m mark for the first time since 2016 Q2.

In Q3 2015 crude oil production at 2.17mbpd turned out to be the highest since the whole of 2015 followed by Q4 2015 with 2.16mbpd and 2.05mbpd in Q2 2015 and Q1 2016.

As a result, real growth in the oil sector, says NBS was 25.89% year on year for the quarter and its contribution to GDP thus rose to 10.04% from Q3 2016's 8.09% and Q2  2017's 9.04%.

However, non oil sector recorded 0.76% drop year on year within the quarter leading to drop in its contribution to GDP from 91.91% in Q3 2016 and 90.96% in Q2 2917 to 89.96% by September this year.

The chances are that with one more quarter figure to go, it is not likely that overall 2017 will end with growth rate close to ones recorded before the 2016 plunge into recession.

Top GDP growth rate since 2011 remains 2014's 6.22% followed by 2014 with 5.49% and 5.31% in 2011. In 2012, the economy grew by 4.21% and in 2015, just before plunging into recession in 2016 with minus 1.58%, the 2.79% recorded  was the lowest growth rate since 2011.

To hit  even the 2015 low level this year, Q4 may have to end with far higher single digit growth  which is not possible unless something happens to push crude oil prices and demand beyond the roof.

Meanwhile, presenting 2018 budget before the National Assembly recently, President M Buhari set for his government the target of growing the economy in 2018 by 3.5%. That may be too ambitious if militancy resurfaces in the oil producing Niger Delta once again as being threatened by some militant groups and if crude oil price slides down once again.

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