NIGERIAN GDP DOWN 0.52% FIRST QUARTER BUT....

According to latest statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics yesterday, May 23, Nigeria's real gross domestic product (GDP) dropped by 0.52% in the first quarter of this year.

However, this is good news of sorts because it represents the lowest % drop since 2016 first quarter and thus represents a confirmation of the slow recovery discernible in the 4th quarter when it dropped by 1.73% compared to 3rd quarter's minus 2.34%.

The real downswing had started in the 4th quarter of 2015 when 2.11% growth was recorded, which represented a slide from 2.84% growth in the 2015 3rd quarter. Before then, it had opened 1st quarter 2015 with 3.96% growth before going down to 2.35% growth by 2nd quarter, hence the 2015 3rd figure represented a higher growth rate compared to 2nd quarter.

It was from the 2015 marginal growth, the economy entered the road to real recession as real GDP dropped by 0.67% by 2016 first quarter. It dropped again by 1.49% in the following quarter and Nigeria was finally confirmed to be in recession when 3rd quarter 2016 drop came to 2.34%.

Now, the slide downhill is slowing down, according to the NBS latest figures. In the 4th quarter it slowed to  1.73% decrease and now, the recovery, though very slow, is confirmed to be on course with the lowest % since the down turn being recorded in the first quarter of this year.

There is still room for some concern though. The major one being that recovery in the oil sector seems to be mainly responsible for the slow down.

According to the NBS figures, growth in non oil sector though still high at 91.10% in the 1st quarter, it is actually a slide from 4th quarter 2016's 93.25% whereas the slide in oil sector hit a bottom 6.75% growth in quarter and has now climbed back to 8.90%. That is closer to  10.02% growth recorded in the 1st quarter of 2016 than any other quarter since then.

Thus, should the recovery in the oil sector continue as a result of higher or sustained prices of crude oil at the international market, 2017 is likely to end with real growth in GDP leaving 2016 to be the only year Nigeria's real GDP decreased since 2011..

Top year on year growth since then was 2014's 6.22% followed by 5.49% in 2013; 5.31% in 2011 and 4.21% in 2012.

The low years were 2015 with only 2.79% growth then finally 2016 with 1.58% drop year on year.

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