2017: CAN NIGERIA PROVE THE IMF WRONG?

In its current world outlook database released last October, the one optimism the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expressed about the Nigerian economy was that it will decline at less speed.

Whereas IMF projected gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices of $415.1bn for Nigeria in 2016 (down 15.9% on 2015's $493.8bn) the 2017 figure was estimated at $413.7bn, down by only 0.34%.

According to the IMF Nigeria may begin to record growth in GDP in 2018 in the neighbourhood of 7.3% on 2017 projection and then settle for much less annual growth up to 2021.

Can Nigeria prove the IMF wrong and so, come up with growth, not reduced decline in 2017 and not growth from 2018 anticipated by IMF?

May be. But that will be principally if the present recovery in the price of crude oil at the international market is sustained. Of course, this is beyond Nigeria's control; a fact which makes the outlook dicey.

In addition, militancy in the Niger Delta region from which Nigeria extracts crude oil exports, will have to be reduced to the barest minimum to ensure production and export at projected 2.2m barrels per day in 2017 budget.

Also relevant will be sustainance of current harvests from agricultural endeavours and on going campaign against Nigeria's appetite for imported goods with governments showing how to with actions, as against just words.

As for other sectors of the  economy, particularly the manufacturing sector, it will take a long while before any change in fortune could help propel Nigeria to prove the IMF wrong.



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