STILL SLOW RECOVERY DROPS REAL GDP BY 2.24%

Still very slow growth in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) has depressed Nigeria's real GDP by 2.24% in third quarter, says National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

According to figures for the quarter released a few hours ago, GDP at current prices grew by 9.23% to N26.6tr compared to N24.3tr by quarter 3 in 2015 which then was itself 3.22% up.

But even though this increase in nominal GDP was an improvement too on 2.73% growth recorded in quarter two  and 5.85% in quarter one; it was no where near the inflation rate within the quarter.

Hence, real GDP, which is nominal GDP adjusted for inflation to reflect actual services and goods change, decreased by 2.24% to N17.6tr compared to about N18 tr at the same time in 2015.

By implication this confirms further Nigeria's present recession with current efforts and fortunes still unable to reverse it.

In real terms, the decrease in industrial production continues to widen ending third quarter above 12% down on 2015 corresponding levels after dropping above 9% in quarter two, 5.49% in first quarter and by 3.04% and 0.13% in fourth and third quarters of 2015 respectively.

Agriculture apparently remains the area growth has been recorded in real production each quarter since 2015. By third quarter of this year, says NBS, real agricultural production rose by 4.54% about the same growth rate in quarter two (4.53%) and above 3% each quarter of 2015.

Crude oil production was a  major drag on real GDP.  In quarter three it grew by only 1.63% thus sliding down continuously since 2015 quarter three 2.17% growth.

The released figures show the road to today's recession very clearly. Between 2011 and 2014 there was no time real GDP growth in Nigeria fell below 4%.

In 2011 it was 5.31% then 4.21% in 2012 and rose to 5.49% and 6.23% in 2013 and 2014 respectively.

In 2015 it dived to only 2.79% as quarter one recorded 3.96%; quarter two 2.35%; quarter three 2.84% before 2.11% by the fourth quarter.

It is from here quarter one 2016 gave hint of recession by dropping by 0.36% then quarter two confirmed it with 2.06% decrease.

NIGERIAN YEARLY GDP GROWTH

Year.                %
2011.             5.31
2012.             4.21
2013.             5.49
2014.             6.23
2015.             2.79
2016:
1st quarter.   -0.36
2nd     ".         -2.06
3rd.    ".         -2.24

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