THE ASSET SALE OPTION

Of course, Nigeria has option to sell national assets to get out of the current recession.  The real issue is, should this be done?

Then more questions follow in step. Is the time ripe for this to be done? After all it is well acknowledged that there is time for everything.

Then, is the present administration the right one to handle it and deploy the proceeds?

Finally, are there any alternatives to national assets sale in these times? What opportunity costs are attendant on these other options and the national asset sale?

Perhaps, the last question should have come up first. Of course, the immediate objective is to raise investible funds that can be used to kick start the economy on to immediate path of recovery

From this premise, the first option really is balance of payments support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Much as the IMF was set up primarily for this kind of support and Nigeria will not be the first to reach for it, antecedents and feelings that run deep amongst Nigerians, do not create the environment for it.

This is for the same reason the IMF remains a strong option, it does not give support without conditionalities needed to help bring about economic health, perhaps in terms of removal of threat posed by the country in distress to international trade. Nigerians are averse to such conditionalities.

There is also the option of soft loans from presumably friendly nations and development finance organisations. That is the kind Finance Minister Mrs Kemi Adeosun had since said was expected from the World bank;  China which is now in a struggle with the US for international economic influence; and the African Development Bank.

Unfortunately none of these are likely to impose conditionalities that can be true medicine towards more independent Nigeria unless to an extent, with the exception of ADB. Reach for China or the world bank and you walk into an embrace that may be far more than the friendly handshake you envisaged.

Yet, the option of immediately enticing private investors to look very intensely down Nigeria's way can never be available as part of short term package. Buhari and presidents men should have acted more decisively since May last year, for first fruits of this to be available today. They didn't and here we are, deep in recession which blame game could not solve because crude oil prices refused to recover strongly and new militancy emerged from the Niger Delta to reduce daily production and by implication, forex inflow.

So it does look as if selling national assets to raise cash especially in foreign exchange could be the fastest and best option of them all. Unfortunately, it is not as simple as it looks

Firstly, there is in place a government that equates poverty alleviation with national economic health whereas it is the economic health that must be guaranteed before any poverty alleviation can be feasible. In other words, Buhari presidency could very easily fritter asset sale proceeds in consumer driven decisions or because of the proceeds, find funds from local sources that could make its brand of welfarism worthwhile. Whereas it will run into lack of funds perhaps after change of baton.

Secondly, the case for national asset can only fly if the proceeds can be used to development new income stream sources especially of the foreign exchange type and not just to stimulate local demand and reboot the economy. Of this there is no guarantee from history or from the focus and track of the current government in power so far.

Thirdly,  the truth remains that Nigeria is currently being stretched apart by renewed separatist cries and still growing insecurity. Thus, the assets are needed amongst unifying factors and again, Buhari's own insensitivity to the complexity of the Nigeria project as melting pot of tribes and religions, does not help matters.

In the end, it looks like the national asset sale is not an option after all because it can offer temptation to entrench sectional interest as against national interest and help financially endowed even in these times to engage in winner takes all.

That will plant seeds of discord.  So what do we do? Simple, restructure rules, regulations and official patronage to encourage local enterprise, local innovation and more value addition, and true justice for all; police this very well then wait for the economy to recover at its own time.

It is only this that  can guarantee that Nigeria emerges from the doldrums stronger economically, wiser and more united.