NIGERIA AND FAIR WEATHER FRIENDS.

No one really likes to have fair weather friends. That is friends who one minute are the best you could ever imagine then suddenly when adverse situation occurs, they pack their bags and leave you in the cold.

For most human beings only one other desertion could hurt just that much: parents abandoning one in early age.

Now Nigeria and Nigerians must be hurting from companies and investors who have since packed their bags or are now preparing to jump ship in less than a year of truly almost hopeless situation.

Some left simply by counting their losses and shifting their funds somewhere else while for some it meant letting go of control and selling controlling interests to the highest bidder.

A most recent one Henates read about is the reported decision of the major foreign investors in historic Federal Palace Hotel to go back to South Africa.

They reportedly gave reasons why it was time to show Nigeria backside and that is what makes their case most interesting.

Sun International with 49% holding in Federal Palace has decided to divest because the EFCC broke the camel's back by raiding and arresting five top staff recently and they are yet to get their passports back.

Before the back was broken forex loss of $15.2m from Naira depreciation; dispute amongst shareholders; and the impact of insecurity and incessant epidemics had depressed room rate and occupancy far below break even point.

Perhaps, in this case it may be better to say good riddance to yet another fair weather friend, but that will be missing the more relevant point.

This is that sometimes, we create the situations or conditions that turn friends into fair weather ones. Is that the case in Nigeria now?

Most likely. One, because in recent times the EFCC operatives have failed to realise that investigation does not equal to siege and public show; most times it is even better done outside the public glare.

Also, in deciding on introducing the inter bank market, it does not appear as if enough thought was given to its negative aspects and  so have measures ready to help friends cushion what in the immediate, looks like an enemy action. Not to talk of government desperation for more internally generated revenue while on the expenditure and budgeting side, its business as usual.

The issue really is that some of the major investors now jumping ship provide services and products that could easily be provided by local investors. So indeed, it is tempting to only say good riddance and turn the cheek like a deeply pained friend will do.

What happens when the ones who provide essential products, add unique values and employ many Nigerians are encouraged to reconsider their exposure to Nigeria and its self inflicted woes? What happens when even new potential investors decide to hold back commitment?

Of course, the situation gets worse, not better.

It is then it will dawn on today's leaders that the way out of cost push inflation especially of the imported type, is not just to stimulate demand through more government expenditure but more importantly, finding ways to bring down cost of production especially of high value added and essential goods and services.

If not, soon you find yourself battling with more dangerous mix of cost push and demand pull inflation that can not be helped through economies of scale soon enough to avoid collapse.