NOW THAT NAIRA WILL TRADE OPENLY AGAIN.

Once again, the Naira, after months of being rationed at controlled exchange rates, is to be sold and bought at the open market although with two major question marks still looming large above it.
The first question mark has to do with apparent unpreparedness of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for the change of direction before the announcement on Monday after the monthly monetary policy meeting of the bank.
This is hoping that this not yet again another knee jerk decision taken more in anticipation of expected or promised forex inflow as against reality of the Nigerian supply situation.
The second question mark has to do with the infidelity buried in the plan to retain a special window for so called critical transactions. This is the window on a larger scale the CBN is actually closing and it is surprising that they expect to travel right by boarding two ships at the same time.
It is either the Nigerian foreign supply situation is too critical to leave to market forces alone to value and allocate or it is robust enough for this.
Thus any attempt to make a critical situation better by going on a spending spree determined by family demand can only work if the head of the family has been promised significant increase in the family income. If not, soon enough can't pay, won't pay will be the only option available.
For the past one Nigeria has witnessed chronic indecision because of shifting goal posts of promised aid and support, and it is hoped that the hope for inflow of so-called $20bn diaspora funds materialises, if not now we are talking of recession, soon we will be talking of the Greece kind of recent situation.
Unless of course, good old crude oil and gas comes to the rescue, which from the look of things is not likely in the near future.
So please as the open market doors are thrown open again for the Naira, someone had better ensure two things:
1) That expected inflow from foreign investors and Nigerians in diaspora really occurs and
2) That if the forex continues to trickle in, traders who add little values to imported consumer goods we could do without do not corner the chunk because they have more Naira in their pocket and cheaper goods to push into the market.
Tough right? Yea and that is why it is difficult to envy today's political and economic managers of Nigeria.

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