NIGERIA TO BORROW N729.4BN IN 2016?

The President Buhari administration may borrow up to N729.4bn in 2016 if the worst happens to its recently released wishes for N6 trillion budget.
According to the budget and planning Minister. senator Udoma Udo Udoma, part of the funds for the proposed budget is to be borrowed within the range of 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) allowed by law.
As at the third quarter of this year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria's GDP was N24,313,636.94m and 3% of that comes to about N729.4bn.
However, two major factors could stop the President and his men from seeking this much in order to actualise the N6trillion hopes.
One of them is the current low value of the Naira which will mean that each dollar earned will translate into far more Naira than Goodluck Jonathan, with his luck, got.
The second is the pegging of crude oil production at 2.2m barrels per day given that in recent years the average has been more above than below this figure. This and the low Naira value could help cushion drags from fall in crude oil price below the $38 bench mark.
Beyond these, some critical assumptions still demand reevaluation. For example, raising capital expenditure to 30% from 15% of the budget may not have remarkable impact because inflation rate has been rising  and so, cost of importing needed foreign components will be higher and wipe out any theoretical increases in the capital budget.
One thing seems obvious though from the briefing sen. Udoma gave to state house journalists after the emergency federal executive council meeting.
He was quoted as saying that a decision was yet to be taken on fuel subsidy and two, no salary cuts are in the pipeline but of course, overheads will be reduced.
How can government overheads be reduced with fuel subsidy intact; wage bill intact and hopefully while government remains determined to pay N5000 to every unemployed youth; give one free meal a day to pupils across the nation and continue with the war against terrorists and equipping and recruiting to ensure greater security?
That is even assuming all goes well with hopes to set up intervention fund outside budget for infrastructure especially roads; power generation and oil and gas exploration and protection from vandals.
It is hoped that the drive for more revenue does not lead to stoking recent attempts to milk corporate cows to death through punitive fines and also rolling back any gains inherited from Goodluck Jonathan's pro business efforts.
Now all we can do is wait for the real budget proposals and accompanying fiscal policies.