GOVERNMENT FINANCES VS NIGERIA'S ECONOMIC HEALTH.

A major assumption that underpins President Buhari's budget 2016 is the belief that once it is well with federal government finances, it is well with the Nigerian economy. This is definitely a dangerous fallacy.
Whether healthy or not, government activities in Nigeria can make a bad situation worse if there is not enough foreign exchange to service Nigeria's economic independence as a nation state.
This is because in view of the very low level of production in the  country currently, particularly manufacturing and agriculture, each demand created through capital or recurrent expenditure applies pressure on the nations foreign reserves since we now import almost everything including petrol.
For example before the self sufficiency in cement production, each government housing programme and road construction effort meant that millions of tons of cement had to be imported. Indeed, the demand was so much at a time in the history of this nation that ships lined up at the wharf waiting to offload cement.
Today, they line up to offload petroleum products and consumer food items like Rice plus, of course, second hand clothes and cars amongst others.
Imagine what it would have looked like today if pro Dangote policies had not led to the competition now ruling in that industry amidst great increase in production capacity within so short a time. We not only will be without new jobs created but more importantly, will have to find now very scarce foreign exchange for Fashola to perform the wonder mr President apparently expects of him.
So based on the assumption that all is well if government finances are ok, 2016 budget acknowledges less revenue from the oil sector and banks on non-oil sector especially tax income (no doubt, with corporate milking as the peg) then believes all should be well provided there is room to borrow.
Unfortunately, the real dance tune for any nation state economy still comes from its foreign reserves and by implication, its foreign earnings. It is when a nation can not pay for its imported goods and service its debts that it is considered bankrupt.
So, even if one were to ignore Buhari's stubborn determination to freely distribute wealth that he has not earned, the lack of deliberate policies and programmes to reduce import dependence; and increase export earnings shows very clearly that there is not enough grasp yet of where the Nigerian shoe pinches.
Oh sure, it is good to bring down the nations corruption empire by all means; it is also good to provide stipend to our elderly and pupils but none  of that can guarantee recovery from bankruptcy should the crude oil price dive persist.
In the final analysis, when a nation produces so little to export, even healthy government finances and the need to deploy this for infrastructural development ends up quickening the pace down hill.