BUHARI'S WISHFUL N500BN.

Updates on the Buhari administration's 2016 N6 trillion budget indicate that N500bn is to be set aside for his party's promise of N5000 for unemployed youths monthly and one free meal a day for all primary pupils in public schools.
There is no reason to doubt this but there is every reason to worry over the future economic health of Nigeria if these promises are kept as envisaged in the 2016 outlook.
Firstly, even if the promises must be kept, obviously N500bn is likely to be under provision and could indicate how well thought out the two promises have been so far.
As usual very reliable data is hard to come by but a March 26 report by Nigerian Punch newspaper had quoted then official education roadmap as putting  public primary schools in Nigeria at 54,434 with a little above 24.4m enrolment by 2006.
Now nine years after, it can not be expected that enrollment will be lower than this even if the 2006 figure was overestimated. So, assuming 24.4m pupils are given one meal a day for 250 school days, N500bn will be exhausted at N82 per meal.
If an austere sai Baba is able to drive efficiency and ensure minimum profit by APC food contractors who will serve the meals or supply ingredients, N50 per meal will bring the bill down to N305bn in 250 days. Now what will be left for unemployed youths?
Yet, bringing in the unemployed makes the equation more dicey. In the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics third quarter 2015 report, the unemployed aged between 15 and 35 was put at about 7m. Now dishing out N5000 monthly to them for 12 months in 2016 will gulf N420bn.
In other words, if N500bn is budgeted for both promises it amounts to a serious case of wishful thinking unless, of course both promises are to be selectively met or the provision is intended to polish political egos only.
Yet, that can not be the end of the matter. Basic economics raises other issues. Yes. this kind of social hand out could stimulate demand and particularly help boost agricultural production but there is no guarantee that in Nigeria it will not lead to further pressure on food prices given today's production levels. No guarantee either that youths empowered with N5000 will not spend it on imported goods and thus stimulate demand somewhere else.
Besides, in these trying times is this the best way to spend N500bn  not to talk of the one likely to be borrowed? Can it and should it too be sustained in 2017 and beyond? Will it not turn out to be another drain pipe that, like the fuel subsidy, becomes harvest field for entrenched self seekers?
Above all, with the N500bn is Buhari not heading gleefully down the dusty road Rauf Aregbesola has been taking Osun state through?
Sure, questions every where one looks around these two isiewu bones stuck in Buhari's political throat (Check an earlier post in this blog) and this is hoping that they are not getting more embedded.